CHICAGO, October 24, 2025 — Grocery prices rose at three times the rate for meals prepared outside of homes in September, tempering what restaurants and other ready-to-eat food outlets have cited as a major reason for a decline in customer traffic. 

Menu prices increased by an average of 0.1% during the month, compared to a 0.3% upswing in grocery charges, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). The results show a deceleration in food inflation for both channels.

Menu prices at limited-service restaurants rose 0.2%, while charges at full-service establishments held steady, BLS reported.

Nevertheless, the month ended with food-away-from-home prices running 3.7% above the average of a year earlier, compared with a 2.7% increase in the cost of food prepared at home. 

The overall Consumer Price Index also grew at a slower rate, with the inflation-adjusted indicator of inflation clocked at 0.3%, compared with a rate of 0.4% in August. Last month’s increase left consumer prices 3% above where they were 12 months ago.

The September inflation rate was lower than many economists had expected.

The main driver of last month’s increase was a 4.1% spike in the retail price of gasoline. 

The CPI is updated by BLS every month. This month’s release was delayed by the shutdown of the federal government. 

BLS noted that the raw data for the September CPI computation was collected prior to the shutdown.

The widening gap between grocery and food-away-from-home inflation is likely to be welcomed by the restaurant industry. Operations like the Denny’s family dining chain say their traffic has been eroded as the savings from cooking at home become more attractive.

IFMA The Food Away from Home Association has projected that the price of food prepared outside the home will rise in 2025 by 3.9% before decelerating next year to 3%. 

As Managing Editor for IFMA The Food Away from Home Association, Romeo is responsible for generating the group's news and feature content. He brings more than 40 years of experience in covering restaurants to the position.