CHICAGO, August 27, 2025 — Purchases of goods and services from food-away-from-home suppliers will increase by an inflation-adjusted 1.1% in 2026, with the most appreciable uptick coming from the onsite sector of the market, according to IFMA The Food Away from Home Association.
The trade group also expects menu inflation to moderate next year, to 3%, compared with an expectation of a 3.9% rise in prices this year.
Simultaneous with releasing its annual forecast, the association revised its purchasing projections for 2025. Despite what many in the business have called an extraordinarily difficult year for the foodservice industry, IFMA The Food Away from Home Association is holding to its February forecast of a 0.9% rise in real terms in operators’ total outlays for supplies and services. That equates to a 4.8% rise in nominal terms.
“The sky is not falling,” Charlie McConnell, the association’s VP of Insights, Education and Research, said in releasing the purchasing figures. “We’re the foodservice industry; we’re going to be okay.”
But his segment-by-segment review of what foodservice suppliers can expect over the next 16 months showed it’s not a situation of a rising tide lifting all boats.
A case in point: Limited and full-service restaurants are expected to increase their purchases by 1% in 2026, compared to a forecast of 1.5% for the onsite market
Colleges and universities
Among the surprises aired by McConnell during the recent Go2MarketEdge virtual conference was the forecast of a 0.5% decline in purchases by the food-and-beverage departments of colleges and universities, traditionally a rock-solid market for the suppliers who serve it.
McConnell explained that the C&U segment has essentially hit capacity; it can’t grow unless more dorms are built, and the potential loss of federal funding is putting a chill in construction, particularly at medium-sized and small institutions.
He also noted that high schools are graduating fewer students today because of a decline in birth rates 18 or so years ago.
The only other industry sector the association expects to purchase less in 2026 is midscale dining, sometimes known as family dining. It’s populated by the likes of Denny’s, Cracker Barrel, and Waffle House, and has been losing customers every year in recent memory, a result of segment stalwarts failing to present the public with new reasons to visit.
Wholesale purchases by the sector are expected to decline 0.7% as the chains and independents it encompasses continue to suffer declining sales.
Fast casuals accelerate
On the positive side, fast-casual outlets will continue to outpace traditional quick-service restaurants in the growth of their purchasing next year. The association forecast a 2% rise for fast casuals but only a 1.2% increase for QSRs.
Still, the QSR market continues to dwarf its younger sister sector, with purchases of $111.3 billion. Fast Casuals’ total outlays are expected to hit $34 billion.
The association expects purchases by the casual-dining sector to be essentially flat, at $61.3 billion.
Traffic is still in a slump
The restaurant sector as a whole is unlikely to see customer counts turn positive in 2026, according to McConnell. “Price is still going to be the prime driver of growth,” he commented. “Most chains we talk to are still taking price increases, but they’re not at the extent we saw in '22 and ‘23.”
The forecast for 2026 and the updated outlook for this year were presented in terms of foodservice purchases—the sales of suppliers, not the operators they service. Food manufacturers remain a significant portion of the association’s membership, though it expanded last year to represent the whole FAFH industry, including operators, distributors, food brokers, and technology providers.
The numbers were compiled for the trade group by Datassential. Additional color came from discussions of market conditions with members of the association’s Foodservice Leadership Councils, the segment-specific share groups that shape the trade organization’s strategy and research.
Members of IFMA The Food Away from Home Association can access a segment-by-segment forecast of operator sales via IFMA Scope, a research tool housed on the association’s website, IFMAworld.com.
McConnell’s presentation was a part of Go2MarketEdge, a conference for marketing and sales executives in the FAFH industry. IFMA The Food Away from Home Association held a face-to-face version of the event earlier this month in San Francisco. The following week, it presented a distinct event of the same name in virtual form. The content differed from the live San Francisco component.
Next year’s in-person Go2MarketEdge will be held August 4-6.
As Managing Editor for IFMA The Food Away from Home Association, Romeo is responsible for generating the group's news and feature content. He brings more than 40 years of experience in covering restaurants to the position.